Five insights for care teams going into this Winter

As we move into Winter 2025, every care leader I speak to is preparing for another season of staffing pressure, rising acuity and continued policy uncertainty. But the conversations that cut through the noise are the ones grounded in lived experience — the operational realities that shape day-to-day life in our sector.

A recent discussion with Amanda Scott, CEO of Forest Healthcare, was one of those. Her career spans decades of clinical practice, quality leadership and operational management, and the themes we covered together echo what I’m hearing across the sector right now.

Here are five lessons every provider can use as we head into the winter cycle — paired with the patterns we see emerging in our workforce data, and the new Workforce Efficiency Scorecard we’ve released to help leaders assess where pressure may build before it hits.

1. Social care offers real progression — when organisations design for it

Amanda’s journey — nurse → deputy manager → home manager → regional → director → CEO — challenges the old narrative that social care lacks meaningful career pathways.

Her advice to emerging leaders was simple and practical:
“If you’re not learning, you’re in the wrong job — stay a little scared.”

For providers, the real question is whether roles, learning pathways and cultures that make it possible for people to progress are being built.

What we’re seeing going into winter

Services with clear progression, fair rotas and consistent communication see more stability through winter — higher shift uptake, stronger internal fill, and fewer short-notice gaps.

2. Value-led recruitment and retention matter more now than ever

Amanda described how she hires for values first — because you can train almost anything except kindness and empathy. She also made the point that engagement isn’t something you “schedule” — it’s something people experience every day through leadership, communication and fairness.

As winter pressures build, this becomes even more critical.

What we’re seeing

Teams who feel valued and connected take on more internal shifts. In many services we work with, 30–50% of winter gaps are filled internally when communication is strong and rotas are predictable.

It’s one of the strongest resilience signals we see.

3. Workforce pressure is about system readiness as well as recruitment

Overseas recruitment surged after COVID and then tightened again in 2025. Amanda’s practical point was that workforce stability now depends on:

• Good systems
• Proactive sponsorship and right-to-remain management
• Clear communication
• Avoiding last-minute crises

It’s not about the volume of recruitment alone but also the infrastructure that supports it.

What we’re seeing

Providers heading into winter with strong visibility across rotas, absence patterns and agency demand avoid many of the predictable “crunch” moments. Forecasting and centralisation should no longer be treated as nice-to-haves but more as operational safeguards.

4. Environment matters — for staff as much as residents

One of the most refreshing parts of our conversation was Forest Healthcare’s “Hygge-inspired” redesign work within their care homes. Inspired by Scandinavian approaches to creating indoor environments that are warm, calm and more human-centred, Forest have seen great results and an uptick in staff morale as they head into what are traditionally the more difficult months in the care sector.

Teams take more pride in the space. Residents benefit. Winter stress feels slightly lower because the atmosphere is supportive and calming rather than chaotic and clinical.

What we’re seeing

The same might be said to hold true digitally as well.

When a service enters winter with:

• WhatsApp for shifts
• Multiple spreadsheets
• Unconnected compliance systems
• Late rota publication

…the digital environment becomes a stress multiplier.

When everything is centralised and predictable (to an extent), however, teams can go some way to becoming more resilient and prepared for the inevitable curveballs that come their way.

5. Focus on what you can control — and act early

The most powerful part of our discussion was around discharge. Everyone knows the systemic inefficiencies: long delays, funding battles, medically-fit patients stuck for weeks.

But Amanda’s stance was pragmatic:
“Work furiously on what you can control.”

Her managers attend assessments within 24 hours. They move the moment the system allows it. That mindset matters more going into winter than at any other time.

What we’re seeing heading into Winter 25/26

Providers that act early — forecasting gaps, planning internal cover pools, cleaning up compliance, communicating rotas sooner — see better continuity and lower agency reliance throughout December–February.

The levers you control today are still the most powerful ones.

A practical tool for winter readiness

These conversations, paired with workforce patterns we’re seeing across the country, are why we’ve released the Workforce Efficiency Scorecard now — heading into the months where predictability matters most.

It gives leaders a fast, honest view of where time, cost and risk may accumulate — and what to tackle first.